The world economic forum has estimated that 50% of existing jobs will be automated in a decade. Within a couple of decades, I believe it could more likely be 80% or 90%. I will explain.
5G technology is allowing China to roll out driverless cars already. 5G removes the need for a safety driver, as a robotaxi can be remotely controlled by a human when it gets confused. Online human override bridges the gap, allowing robotics to do most of anything. Robotaxis are a critical example of this.
You only need to look at the robotics coming out of Boston Dynamics to see that robots can go wherever humans go, and do nearly whatever humans do due to their flexibility. [Example: here]
So, to model the situation, think of a flexible, general-purpose robot riding on a driverless platform to a work site, ready to take on any given job. And think of a human, online, cutting in to direct and help (like a supervisor) yet only when they're specifically required. When the human is not required, they're assisting a different robot, online. No dead time.
The result? The great majority of people will no longer need to leave their home to work or shop. Everything becomes online-based. This, in turn, allows for the rapid streamlining of all our operations. Countless jobs will quickly fall away with ongoing software upgrades.
I could go on, but you get the picture. The room for progressive automation becomes incredible in a heavily roboticised internet-based world, where most operations are governed online. Anything that conforms to a procedure can quickly be automated.
So what does this mean, from a political outlook?
Extreme automation would eventually lead to a tenfold reduction in the price of goods and services. This newfound wealth could well result in deleterious overconsumption, and the lower cost of raising children could lead to a rampaging baby-boom. Would this be ecologically sustainable? For how long?
International organisations seem to be asking these questions already, and their answers look akin to wanting to restrict human consumption directly. You've heard it: "You will own nothing - and be happy". Also noteworthy, the Bank of England has expressed that it wants to install a programmable cryptocurrency, which gives governments the power to directly control what people can and can't buy, for each individual. Hence, they're proposing a sophisticated block to avoid over-consumption.
If we ever go there, I think we'll know what the official excuse will be: Saving the world from CO2.
Regardless, we're going to move into a new world order. No matter the politics, the technological revolutions coming down the pike are so extreme that big questions will have to be asked. I hope we can ask those question for ourselves, and build (or should I say 'evolve') a world in the people's own image.
We, the people, need to do the thinking as far as designing our future goes, because if we don't the UN and other elite organisations will do the thinking for us. I argue that if we are not engaged in future planning, we'll end up with outside organisations doing the planning for us. The latter is not my ideal and I guess no one else's.
Yet sadly, so far, we refuse to even have these conversations.
-Extended article, here.
