People think that buses are efficient, because they tend to possess a picture in mind of buses being jam-packed full of people, both sitting and standing.
When well-loaded buses are of course efficient, at least if they're not stopping and starting too often. But buses only operate well-loaded occasionally. Most often they are terribly underloaded. A 50-seat bus (plus 20 more with standing room) can drive around most of the day with only 5 to 10 people on board, or less. The typical, average passenger loading of an urban bus is about 15% of the seating capacity.
So the idea is, would it make more sense to use shuttle vans (they are about 20% of the weight of a bus) to scoop up the low and scattered demand around to the city outskirts, and then have those vans operate as feeders to a core bus network, where the bus network then specialises to high transport demand, driving people to the CBD?
Of course it would be more efficient, and the picture below gives the basic model.
-Note, if we used bus-only lanes and congestion-charging for the roads that buses use, then that also would greatly enhance efficiency. The buses would then have a minimal stop-and-go operation. Stop-and-go operation is the greatest efficiency killer in urban transport. It reduces capacity, increases fuel consumption, wears out the vehicles and lengthens travel times. The more 'express' we can be, the better.
Making it work:
For the public, organising transfers as required can be difficult and tedious, but in this context I believe it can be painless and efficient. However, we need to use technology...
The consumer should be able to download a simple app which allows them to type in their final destination, and the time they want to be there, and then have the app (using the GPS location function) tell them exactly what van or bus to catch, where and when, and what bus-stop to go to and how to get there.
So, you basically create a "just follow me" function on their phones that removes the headaches and uncertainties from otherwise trying to work it all out.
This is a simple system to employ, because all you would necessarily need to add to the vans and buses is a cellphone which runs the active end of the app.
In short, the system obtains real-time updates on a given vehicles location. Hence, any disruptions or late-runnings will be known to the server, and the passengers travel plans can then be immediately updated as required. It's just like when we make a wrong turn while using Google maps - it automatically redirects you so you can carry on daydreaming.
Cost savings:
Watching a 10 to 15 tonne bus accelerate up a steep hill with almost no one in it is depressing, especially if you believe that anthropogenic global warming is a problem. We can do better, cheaper, and overall provide a superior service for the customer, in particular for local trips where a transfer is not required. Note, good shuttle-vans are faster and more comfortable than buses, and they can run down any road. Shuttle-vans are also much quieter of course, so the residential areas would appreciate the change.
Another possibility that I'm a fan of, to improve speed and efficiency, is to create concentration-point bus-stops. That is, allow people to pay a notably reduced fare in exchange for walking a bit further to a more commonly used bus-stop. If we can functionally make say 70% of existing bus-stops typically redundant, then that would improve efficiency considerably and reduce travel times - especially if it's complemented with congestion controls. Adaptive pricing could be done automatically with the electronic Snapper system, which is already GPS-integrated. All it takes is a software upgrade.
Who could drive this forward and run the experiment?
Probably not busing companies, because if they're heavily subsidised they will have little incentive to change - certainly not on this level, anyway.
Probably all that would happen from a significant efficiency gain, for the busing companies, is the reduction of their subsidies so they would win nothing. Worse, they could lose out because my proposal would put maybe as much as 80% of their fleet out of work.
So I would gather the change would be a question for city councils to consider, if anyone.
-You can see the problem with subsidies. They lead to all kinds of perverse incentives. Also, as soon as an organisation becomes subsidised it inescapably becomes political. Appearances begin to mean as much as realities - or more!
The future:
In time, the shuttle-vans in my model would be replaced with small driverless commuter cars, supporting the bus system. This is inevitable no matter what happens in the future.
The model I have proposed could be a good intermediate step for transferring to driverless public transport systems, over the coming years (see here).
-Andrew Atkin
Extra notes:
1. The 'just follow me' app also serves an important function in that it alerts people to their coming stop, on the bus. This makes it easier to relax and absorb yourself on your phone or other, because you're not then on constant alert to be sure you don't miss your stop.
2. The system I have suggested is also highly flexible. It can quickly adapt to any given evolving demand, and efficiently.
If you're using the traditional system of buses only (no shuttle-vans), then adapting the system to changing demand means you're either stopping the service completely in certain areas, or retaining an inefficient service. Instead, you can efficiently mix between shuttle-vans and buses, as required. You should never get 'stuck' with an inefficient operation.
3. Another idea I'm a fan of is using retired people to run the shuttle-van service. Shuttle vans are very easy to drive, especially in low speed and low density areas. Retired people could maybe work for $10 an hour cash (government policy permitting) to top-up their pension, while keeping busy and socially engaged with some easy part-time work. Retired people are a largely wasted resource that could be put to excellent use, helping to run a good public transport system and keeping congestion under control.
No comments:
Post a Comment